Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Valid 030100Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.
...01z Update...
Seasonally strong short-wave trough is advancing east across the
Great Basin early this evening. Large-scale ascent is spreading
downstream ahead of this feature into southern WY where isolated
thunderstorms are currently noted, especially over Carbon County,
just east of Rawlins. This activity appears to be aided by the 500mb
speed max and steep 0-6km lapse rates. 00z soundings from RIW, GJT,
and LKN all support this with 8-9 C/km values, but only ~0.35 inch
PW. Very weak buoyancy will continue to support lighting with weak
convection this evening.
Later tonight, surface warm front will advance north into the Ozarks
and 850mb warm advection will increase along the cool side of the
boundary. While 00z sounding from SGF exhibited a very strong cap,
and negligible instability, weak MUCAPE should gradually increase
later tonight and isolated elevated convection is expected to
develop across the MO/IL region.
..Darrow.. 03/03/2026
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