Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026
Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today and tonight.
...20Z Update...
Thunder probabilities were removed along the NC Coast, as the
low-level confluence zone and associated axis of instability has
shifted offshore. Thunder probabilities were also trimmed over the
MS Valley region, with the remaining probabilities focused where
warm-air advection at the nose of a developing low-level jet will be
strongest. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may form along
sea-breeze boundaries over the southern FL peninsula, and a few
lightning flashes remain possible through the remainder of the
period over the Intermountain West with the eastward progression of
an upper trough.
..Squitieri.. 03/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move eastward across the Intermountain
West/Great Basin to the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains
through the period. Large-scale ascent associated with this upper
disturbance and adequate mid-level moisture will support isolated to
scattered thunderstorms from the Great Basin into parts of the
north-central High Plains. Scant instability will preclude a severe
risk with this activity.
Farther east, isolated thunderstorms appear possible tonight as
increasing low-level warm/moist advection contributes to the
development of weak MUCAPE across parts of the mid MS Valley and
vicinity. Farther east, convection capable of producing occasional
lightning may also occur across parts of coastal NC and south FL.
Weak shear and/or instability across all these regions should
preclude a meaningful severe threat today.
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