Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging winds
across parts of the Southeast this morning into the early afternoon.
A tornado can not be ruled out early with this activity.
Southeast: A well-developed squall line has evolved ahead of a
pronounced low-latitude short-wave trough. This line of convection
currently extends across the central Gulf states and is advancing
steadily east in line with latest model guidance. Early-morning
water-vapor imagery depicts a short wave that is becoming a bit more
negative-tilt as it approaches the lower MS Valley. This feature
will eject into AL by the start of the day1 period with substantial
midlevel height falls forecast across much of the Southeast early in
the period. Upper 60s to lower 70s surface dew points have returned
inland across the FL Panhandle and southern AL, and a narrow wedge
of modified Gulf air should be in place across the eastern FL
Panhandle into extreme southwest GA at sunrise. Current trends
suggest the leading edge of strong/severe convection will propagate
into this portion of the Southeast around 12z. Strong deep-layer
shear favors organized updrafts and given the large-scale support
ahead of the trough, activity should remain organized at the start
of the period. Some consideration was given to increasing severe
probabilities for a narrow wedge immediately ahead of the front for
early in the period. If the squall line continues severe this may be
warranted at 13z. Locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado are
the expected hazards.
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms may also develop along the
progressive front as it spreads across portions of the Carolinas.
Severe threat is primarily before 18z, as the cold front will surge
off the Carolina coast by this time.
Northern Plains: Strong midlevel jet will dig southeast across MT
into SD with 500mb speeds expected in excess of 120kt into the
northern High Plains. AB clipper will dig southeast into the upper
Red River region by late afternoon and northwesterly flow will
strengthen across this region as the cyclone shifts east. Forecast
soundings suggest weak buoyancy will evolve south of the front
across the northern Plains such that shallow convection is expected
to develop, along with the threat of some lightning. While strong
winds will likely develop across eastern MT into SD as lapse rates
steepen, thunderstorms are not expected to be the primary driver of
severe wind gusts. For this reason severe probabilities will not be
introduced.
..Darrow/Halbert.. 03/12/2026
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