Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Valid 120100Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND OVER MUCH OF THE GULF STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected tonight from
the Gulf Coast into parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
...01z Update...
Middle Atlantic: Narrow corridor of yet-to-be overturned instability
extends across eastern WV into the Middle Atlantic. Several short
line segments have developed ahead of the primary short wave, but
the leading convection over eastern MD/northern DE into NJ is the
primary concern, as this activity has a bit more buoyancy to work
with than the trailing convection across central PA into western WV.
Strong deep-layer shear remains favorable for organized storms to
spread across this region over the next few hours before ingesting
cooler marine layer near the Atlantic coast.
Gulf States: Expansive MCS has evolved over the lower MS Valley
early this evening. This complex has developed ahead of a
low-latitude upper low over south central TX that is becoming more
negative tilt with time. Exit region of midlevel jet will translate
along the Gulf coast overnight, and this will encourage eastward
propagation through sunrise. 00z sounding from LIX exhibited strong
shear, but a substantial warm layer is noted around 4-5km. This warm
layer should gradually cool as the aforementioned upper low advances
east tonight.
..Darrow.. 03/12/2026
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