Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Valid 121300Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging winds
across parts of the Southeast this morning into the early afternoon.
A tornado can not be ruled out early with this activity. Strong wind
gusts are possible across the northern Plains this afternoon as
well.
...Southeast into the Carolinas...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows phased shortwave troughs
within the broad upper troughing across the eastern CONUS, with the
southern shortwave progressing through the Southeast and the
northern shortwave moving into the Middle OH Valley. A convective
line, aided by ascent attendant to the southern shortwave, continues
to progress eastward/northeastward across GA and the FL Panhandle. A
warm, moist, and modestly buoyant environment precedes this line,
with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s and dewpoints ranging
from the low 60s across the Carolinas to the low 70s across northern
FL. Expectation is for this line to persist as it continues
eastward/northeastward, with perhaps some slowing of the southern
portion of the line as it becomes displaced south of the better
forcing for ascent. Central portion of this line nearest the
strongest forcing will likely have the deepest updrafts for the next
several hours before progressing northeastward of the better
moisture and buoyancy as it moves across NC. Robust low to mid-level
flow will remain in place, supporting the potential for damaging
gusts and brief line-embedded tornadoes through the afternoon.
...Northern Plains...
Intense mid-level flow (i.e. 100-120 kt at 500 mb) will spread
southeastward across the northern Plains this afternoon, in tandem
with a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing through the
region. Forecast soundings suggest weak buoyancy will evolve south
of the front across the northern Plains such that shallow convection
is expected to develop, along with the threat of some lightning.
This convection could augment the already strong
westerly/northwesterly flow, resulting in strong surface wind gusts.
Significant wind gusts (65+ kt) are possible.
..Mosier/Dean.. 03/12/2026
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