Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Valid 271300Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over parts of the
Southeast and Florida Peninsula today. Organized severe
thunderstorms appear unlikely.
...Southeast...
Recent surface analysis shows a cold front continuing to advance
southward this morning across southern LA/MS/AL into the FL
Panhandle and southern GA. This front will decelerate and stall
across the northern FL Peninsula today as a mid-level shortwave
trough moves eastward across the remainder of the Southeast. While
diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will occur ahead of the
front, relatively modest lapse rates should hinder the development
of any more than weak instability. Furthermore, low-level
convergence along the front is expected to remain limited. Even so,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms should eventually develop this
afternoon, focused across parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula
along and south of the front. While a stronger thunderstorm or two
with gusty winds may occur, the weak instability, modest lapse rates
aloft, and marginal deep-layer shear all suggest that the risk for
organized severe thunderstorms should remain low today.
..Gleason/Bentley.. 02/27/2026
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