Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Valid 272000Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms are expected over portions of
the Southeast and Florida today. While a few strong storms may
develop through this evening, the threat of organized severe
thunderstorms appears low.
...20z Update - Southeast...
No changes have been made to the outlook at 20z. See previous
discussion below for details.
..Leitman.. 02/27/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026/
...Southeast...
A southward-advancing cold front is decelerating this morning across
the FL Panhandle and southeastern GA. This front is expected to
stall across the northern FL Peninsula today as a mid-level
shortwave trough evident in water vapor imagery moves eastward
across the Southeast. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass
is underway ahead of the front, as low-level clouds have eroded
across much of the FL Peninsula this morning. Relatively modest
lapse rates should hinder the development of MLCAPE exceeding 1000
J/kg. Furthermore, low-level convergence along the front is expected
to remain limited. Even so, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
should eventually develop this afternoon into the evening, focused
across parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula along and south of
the front. While a stronger thunderstorm or two with gusty winds may
occur, especially along/near the eastern FL coast, the weak
instability, modest lapse rates aloft, and marginal deep-layer shear
all suggest that the risk for organized severe thunderstorms should
remain low today.
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