Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over parts of the
Southeast and Florida Peninsula. Severe thunderstorms are not
currently forecast.
...Southeast/Florida...
Strong midlevel short-wave trough is currently digging southeast
across the Arklatex. This feature will advance into the central Gulf
states by 18z before shifting into GA/FL Panhandle/northeast Gulf by
early evening. Latest model guidance suggests scattered convection
will be ongoing near the primary synoptic boundary at the start of
the period, and while deep-layer flow will be more than adequate for
sustaining organized updrafts, buoyancy should be too weak to
warrant much risk of severe.
As the short wave digs southeast, a secondary surface boundary will
establish itself across the FL Peninsula, and this wind shift should
serve to focus convection, with some propensity for more
concentrated storms near the FL Atlantic coast. Models suggest
modest boundary-layer heating southeast of this boundary, and
forecast soundings exhibit 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE; however, midlevel
lapse rates will be somewhat marginal with values near 6 C/km. At
this time it appears any storms that mature near the east coast
should be limited by the poor 700-500mb lapse rates.
..Darrow/Chalmers.. 02/27/2026
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