Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Valid 180100Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of
coastal Southern California through tonight.
...Discussion...
Thunderstorm activity continues across portions of Southern
California this evening as mid-level flow increases with the
approaching upper-level low. Thunderstorm activity is expected to
continue overnight, with potential for occasional stronger bands
that may produce some instances of damaging wind. A low tornado risk
was maintained with this outlook, owing to the strong deep layer
flow progged to increase overnight.
High-based convection across far eastern Nebraska has showed signs
of weakening over the last hour, with a downward trend in lightning.
Guidance shows little in the way of additional development through
the rest of the evening. The Marginal Risk across this region was
removed with this outlook.
..Thornton.. 02/18/2026
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