Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible along parts
of the West Coast, southern Great Basin, central Rockies, and the
lower Great Lakes regions. Severe weather is not anticipated.
...Discussion...
A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS Wednesday
morning through late Thursday. Across the western US, a trough will
gradually shift across the Great Basin with enhanced mid-level flow
overspreading the Desert Southwest into the central/southern High
Plains. Forcing for ascent and cooling temperatures aloft will bring
scattered thunderstorm activity across the central California coast
to the Oregon/Washington Coast. Additional thunderstorm development
will be possible across the southern Great Basin into the central
Rockies. Generally weak thermal profiles will limit severe potential
with this activity.
A secondary trough will continue to shift northeast across the Great
Lakes Region. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible
along an eastward moving front within a narrow region of warm air
advection. Given the generally narrow/weak region of marginal
instability, activity is this region is expected to remain
sub-severe.
..Thornton/Squitieri.. 02/18/2026
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