Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Valid 171300Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe storms appears low, but isolated thunderstorms
will be possible across parts of the West, and across the Upper
Midwest late this afternoon and tonight.
...Western States/Coastal California...
A prominent upper-level trough will continue to settle
south-southeastward along the West Coast through tonight, with a
strong upper speed max nosing across central/southern California
late today into tonight. North of the upper jet, very cold
temperatures aloft will exist which will result in a few hundred
J/kg SBCAPE, mainly for northern/central coastal areas today. While
gusty winds and/or small hail could occur, organized severe storm
potential is currently expected to remain low.
...Upper Midwest...
Consequential height falls will steadily occur regionally by late
afternoon into tonight as a lead shortwave trough emerges from the
northern/central High Plains. A related surface low will develop
generally eastward across South Dakota/northern Nebraska toward
Minnesota overnight. A moisture-limited warm sector, featuring
mostly 40s with a few lower 50s F surface dewpoints, will shift
north-northeastward toward the region in advance of an
eastward-accelerating cold front.
Surface heating/boundary-layer mixing will steepen low-level lapse
rates into afternoon in vicinity of the surface low/front, and while
capping may tend to largely prevail during the day, a few
thunderstorms could occur before sunset initially across the eastern
Dakotas and/or far eastern Nebraska. Some convectively enhanced wind
gusts are plausible given the steep lapse rates and strong
deep-tropospheric wind field. Elevated thunderstorms will otherwise
become more probable east-northeastward into evening and beyond
across the Upper Midwest. Instability does not appear strong enough
to support severe hail with this elevated activity.
..Guyer/Grams.. 02/17/2026
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