Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across Pacific coastal areas much of
California Tuesday, and across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into
the Upper Midwest late. The risk for severe storms appears low.
...Pacific Coastal States...
An upper low will drop south toward the coastal Pacific Northwest
today as a strong upper speed max noses into central CA by 00Z. This
feature will translate southward overnight and into southern CA by
12Z Wed. North of the upper jet, very cold temperatures aloft will
exist which will result in a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE despite cool
surface conditions. While favorable shear profiles will develop
southward through the central valleys, surface temperatures will
largely be in the 40s to perhaps lower 50s F, with generally limited
heating. Very small hail cannot be ruled out in the strongest
convection given long hodographs and such cold temperatures aloft,
but severe storms are not currently forecast.
...Mid MO Valley / Upper Midwest...
A leading shortwave trough will move into the Plains today, with a
strong speed max aloft from NM into KS by 00Z. The strongest cooling
aloft and lift will occur from NE into the Dakotas, and into western
MN/IA be evening. Low pressure will develop into SD during the
afternoon, with a cold front pushing toward the mid MO Valley. While
surface heating as well as boundary-layer mixing will steepen
low-level lapse rates in the veered flow, it appears capping may
hold atop the plume of 40s F dewpoints ahead of the wind shift. An
isolated thunderstorm cannot totally be ruled out through 00Z, but a
greater chance will exist as minimal elevated instability develops
near the nose of the 850 mb jet with lift focused across MN and WI.
Instability does not appear strong enough to support severe hail
with this elevated activity.
..Jewell/Squitieri.. 02/17/2026
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