Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storm are not forecast through Tuesday morning. Scattered
storms are still expected tonight from southwest Oregon into
northern California late tonight, with isolated activity into
southern California.
...West Coast...
A shortwave trough and cold front will continue moving out of
southern CA and into parts of AZ and UT and western CO through the
night. Isolated convective showers and a few lightning flashes will
remain possible over southern CA through tonight due to cold
temperatures aloft and as secondary disturbance rotates through the
base of the trough.
To the north, another large upper trough with very cold temperatures
aloft will dive southeastward off the WA/OR coasts, with increasing
shoreline convergence with an attendant cold front. The 00Z UIL
sounding shows the very cold temperatures and steep lapse rates
through a deep layer, despite cool surface temperatures, with
isolated lightning offshore at this time. Later tonight, showers and
a few thunderstorms may impact parts of western OR and northern CA,
but severe weather is not expected.
..Jewell.. 02/17/2026
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