Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Valid 162000Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact the coastal areas of central and
southern California today. These storms may produce locally
damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.
...20z Update...
No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook. Bands of
thunderstorm activity continue to move onshore across portions of
the southern California coast, with potential for gusty winds and
brief tornado. The threat will gradually shift southward through the
afternoon/evening with the gradual movement inland of the
upper-level wave. See previous discussion for more information.
..Thornton.. 02/16/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026/
...Coastal Central and Southern CA...
Recent satellite imagery continues to show a strong shortwave trough
off the southern CA coast. Robust low-level wind fields precede this
shortwave, with recent mesoanalysis and KVBX VAD profiles showing
southerly winds around 40 to 50 kt at 1 km over Santa Barbara and
San Luis Obispo counties. Despite very meager buoyancy, regional
radar imagery does show some deeper convective elements moving
eastward/northeastward from along the Santa Barbara county coast to
just west of the northern Channel Islands. Strong forcing for ascent
will continue across the region throughout the day, although a
southward shift is anticipated over the next few hours as a strong
mid-level jet streak approaches the coast of far southern CA. This
stronger forcing may result in a southward extension of the ongoing
band, or the development of a separate band farther south.
Given the intense wind fields in place over the region, any deeper
more sustained convection could result in localized strong gusts and
perhaps even a brief tornado. Current trends suggest this severe
potential will gradually shift southward across southern CA
throughout the day. However, this threat should be limited/very
isolated given the scant buoyancy in place and resulting expectation
that any deeper convection should be brief and too shallow to
produce lightning.
...Coastal southwest OR and northern CA...
An upper trough will dive southward just off the Pacific Northwest
tonight, with the left-exit region of the upper jet pushing into
northern CA early Tuesday morning. While surface temperatures will
be cool (in the 40s F) in the wake of the earlier wave, this
secondary trough will bring cold temperatures aloft with and 500 mb
temperatures to around -35 C. As such, 100-200 J/kg of SBCAPE will
exist along the immediate coast, and a few instances of low-topped
convection may yield locally strong wind gusts as the cold front
moves through.
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