Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX TO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of Texas to the Lower
Mississippi Valley. This most likely time frame is this evening to
tonight, when a few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds may occur
across east Texas to southern Mississippi.
...Southern Great Plains to the Lower MS Valley...
Slightly elevated storms should be ongoing at 12Z across parts of
west/western north TX and southern OK. This activity will probably
remain sub-severe through the morning, but a brief marginally severe
hail/wind event is plausible within a strongly sheared but weakly
buoyant environment. Some of this convection may intensify into the
afternoon as downstream destabilization occurs, along with evolution
into a loosely organized QLCS. CAM guidance remains rather varied
regarding the coverage and duration of organized storms through much
of the first half of the period, suggestive of a mainly isolated
severe threat.
Guidance is more consistent with increasing low-level mass response
near/after 00Z, which should aid in the development of a more
organized QLCS through the evening in east TX. This QLCS is likely
to accelerate eastward across parts of LA and the Lower MS Valley
overnight. While instability will become increasingly scant with
eastward extent, strengthening low/mid-level flow and effective SRH
will support development of one or more organized bowing segments,
with an attendant threat of scattered damaging winds. An increase in
tornado threat is also anticipated, mainly with line-embedded
mesovortices. But within the warm-conveyor belt region near the Gulf
Coast, a supercell or two may form before merging into the QLCS.
Most guidance suggests some weakening trend prior to 12Z, with the
stronger forcing becoming displaced north of the effective warm
sector. However, some threat for locally damaging winds and a brief
tornado could persist near the central Gulf Coast through the end of
the period.
..Grams/Supinie.. 02/14/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TQy5Qk
