Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Valid 140100Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TX TO
SOUTHEAST KS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind are possible tonight
through Saturday morning across parts of the southern Great Plains.
...Southern Great Plains...
Forecast largely remains as advertised with a corridor of generally
marginal severe hail and wind potential from parts of west TX to
southeast KS. See MCD 0071 for short-term discussion across the TX
South Plains. Overall severe threat might increase overnight as an
expanding swath of storms occurs with strengthening large-scale
ascent downstream of the positive-tilt shortwave trough over the
Desert Southwest. Some models, most notably recent HRRR runs, are
insistent on a meso-beta corridor of sustained storm structures
developing in the pre-dawn hours in the Permian Basin vicinity of
west TX. The 00Z MAF observed sounding confirmed a robust speed
shear profile above 800 mb, which is expected to remain
conditionally conducive to a couple mid-level supercells capable of
large hail through early morning. However, the influx of low-level
moisture from the south will remain modest and limit available
buoyancy. In addition, storm mode should remain cluster-dominated,
eventually evolving into a linear structure by 12Z towards the TX
Big Country. These factors may curtail greater severe hail coverage
overnight.
..Grams.. 02/14/2026
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