Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 141300Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN TEXAS INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of Texas to the Lower
Mississippi Valley. The most likely time frame is this evening to
tonight, when a few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds may occur
across east Texas to southern Mississippi.
...Synopsis...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a gradually deepening
upper wave in place along the southern High Plains into northern
Mexico with a pronounced vorticity maximum approaching the upper Rio
Grande Valley. Latest upper-air analyses show increasing cold
advection across the southern High Plains, which will contribute to
the intensification and eastward progression of the wave through
tonight. At the surface, seasonally high dewpoints (low to mid-60s)
continue to spread north across central/eastern TX to the south of a
warm frontal zone analyzed from northwest OK to the lower MS Valley.
Continued low-level warm advection and increasing ascent aloft will
promote steady deepening/organization of the surface cyclone as it
shifts southeast towards southern AR/northern LA by tonight. A
frontogenetic Pacific cold front attendant to the cyclone will
promote thunderstorm development across central to eastern TX this
afternoon and into LA and southern MS overnight.
...Eastern Texas to Southwest Mississippi...
Ongoing elevated convection will continue to spread east/northeast
through late morning, supported by steady isentropic ascent within
the warm frontal zone and over residual cold pools from prior
overnight convection. With time, this activity will become
increasingly near-surface based as MLCAPE increases to around 1000
J/kg across eastern TX amid continued moisture return and filtered
daytime heating. Focused forcing along the front and strong height
falls aloft will promote upscale growth of initially semi-discrete
cells and clusters into an organized line by early evening. The
potential for severe gusts and embedded tornadic circulations should
increase as this occurs - especially between 00-04 UTC across far
east TX into central LA as the mid-level jet attendant to the upper
wave ejects eastward along the Gulf Coast and promotes a rapid
eastward surge of the front.
...Far Southwest Oklahoma into Central Texas...
Gradual clearing is anticipated through the day in the wake of
morning showers and thunderstorms across central TX into southwest
OK. Despite modest low-level moisture behind the primary surface
front, cold temperatures aloft under the upper trough coupled with
daytime heating should promote lifted indices on the order of -5 to
-6 C within a largely uncapped environment. Weak ascent under/behind
the upper trough will support mainly isolated convective
showers/thunderstorms, but 30 knot mid-level flow may be sufficient
for a few organized cells capable of producing large hail this
afternoon.
..Moore/Smith.. 02/14/2026
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