Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce occasional hail
and gusty winds this evening into the overnight hours across parts
of the southern Plains.
...Southern Plains...
An upper trough over Baja California late this morning will move
eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico into the southern
Rockies by early Saturday morning. Gradually strengthening low-level
flow will continue to advect somewhat richer moisture northwestward
from the TX Hill Country (mostly 50s surface dewpoints) into parts
of west TX and western/central OK through the period. Modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates present will support around 500-1000
J/kg MUCAPE by this evening across the southern High Plains. Various
NAM/RAP forecast soundings show strong effective bulk shear (around
50-70 kt) this evening/overnight as southwesterly mid/upper-level
flow strengthens with the approach of the upper trough, which will
likely support thunderstorm organization.
Isolated thunderstorms should initially develop on the northwest
periphery of the low-level moisture return over parts of northwest
TX and vicinity late this afternoon/early evening with some hail
threat. As large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough
approaches the southern High Plains later this evening, a more
extensive southwest to northeast corridor of convection is expected.
One or more clusters may eventually evolve into linear bands and
develop east-northeastward along/near an eastward-moving Pacific
front.
One of these linear clusters with perhaps embedded supercells seems
likely to occur early Saturday morning (after 14/06Z) from parts of
west into northwest TX as stronger forcing for ascent overspreads
this region. Mainly an isolated severe hail risk with the strongest
updrafts this afternoon/evening should transition to a mix of
hail/wind potential during the overnight hours as the convective
mode becomes more linear. Strengthening low-level warm-air advection
over OK tonight will favor primarily elevated strong to locally
severe thunderstorms capable of occasional hail, perhaps extending
as far north as southern KS during the pre-dawn hours Saturday.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 02/13/2026
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