Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Valid 131300Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce hail and gusty
winds this evening into the overnight hours across portions of the
southern Plains.
...Southern Plains...
An upper trough this morning over southern CA/eastern Pacific to the
west of Baja California will move east into the southern Rockies by
early Saturday morning. Strengthening south-southeasterly 850mb
flow is forecast to advect richer moisture northwestward from the
Hill Country (50s dewpoints) into parts of west TX northeastward
into western/central OK. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled at 12
UTC this morning in Midland, TX (7.7 deg C/km), will aid in the
development of 500-1200 J/kg MUCAPE as the moist plume gradually
moistens/heats today. Forecast soundings shows strong to very
strong effective shear (50-70 kt), which will support storm
organization.
Initially, isolated storms are forecast to develop on the northwest
periphery of moisture return over parts of northwest TX late this
afternoon. As the upper trough approaches the region this evening
into the overnight, a more extensive southwest to northeast corridor
of convection is expected. One or more clusters will likely evolve
into linear bands and move east-northeastward near an
eastward-moving Pacific front and from prior storm-generated cold
pools. One of these linear clusters seems likely from parts of the
Permian Basin vicinity into northwest TX tonight as deeper
large-scale forcing for ascent pivots into the southern High Plains.
A predominately hail risk with the strongest storms this
afternoon/evening will probably transition to a mix of hail/wind
potential during the overnight as the storm mode becomes more
linear. Strengthening low-level warm-air advection over OK tonight
will favor primarily elevated strong to locally severe storms
capable of a hail risk into perhaps as far north as southern KS
during the pre-dawn hours on Saturday.
..Smith/Moore.. 02/13/2026
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