Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce hail and gusty
winds this evening into the overnight hours across portions of the
southern Plains.
...Southern Plains...
Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave
trough off the Baja Peninsula. This southern-stream feature is
beginning to eject northeast in response to the Great Basin/CA
trough digging toward the lower CO River Valley. By early evening,
00z model guidance suggests this southern short wave will deamplify
as it translates across northern Mexico, then into the southern High
Plains during the overnight hours. Modest 12hr height falls will
overspread this region and southeasterly 850mb flow is expected to
respond and increase across the Edwards Plateau into western OK
ahead of the short wave. As a result, a modified Gulf air mass will
begin to advance inland and 50s surface dew points are expected to
overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, with further
moistening expected along the I35 corridor well into the overnight
hours.
Latest guidance suggests modest boundary-layer heating will be noted
from far West TX into western OK such that 500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE is
expected prior to potential convective development. Ample deep layer
shear will be present for organized updrafts and an increasing LLJ
should encourage convection during the overnight hours. Forecast
soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached by 22-23z
and HREF guidance supports this with isolated-scattered storms
evolving across far West TX into western OK by early evening. This
activity will gradually increase in areal coverage as it
spreads/develops east-northeast during the overnight hours. Wind
profiles favor supercell development and large hail will be the
primary concern, along with gust potential. Some consideration was
given to increasing severe probabilities across this region but
instability is not expected to be particularly noteworthy. Will
continue to monitor this region as moisture returns to the southern
Plains.
..Darrow/Supinie.. 02/13/2026
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