Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 042000Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...20z Update...
No changes were made to the prior outlook. Isolated thunderstorms
remain possible over parts of the West Coast into the Great Basin,
and over the far southern FL Peninsula through tonight. Weak
buoyancy should preclude any severe risk. See the prior discussion
for more info.
..Lyons.. 01/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026/
...Discussion...
A progressive/modestly amplified longwave pattern will prevail over
the CONUS through tonight. The primary potential for isolated
thunderstorms will be over the West, generally related to a
weakening shortwave trough that will spread across central
California toward the Great Basin, and a somewhat more prominent
shortwave trough that is just off the coastal Pacific Northwest.
Sporadic, albeit relatively low/isolated, thunderstorm potential
will exist today across the coastal Pacific Northwest toward central
California, and across parts of the Great Basin mainly this
afternoon. The relatively most unstable conditions for the period
are expected to manifest late tonight near the northern California
coast as mid-level lapse rates steepen. However, only a few hundred
J/kg MUCAPE and limited-strength winds through the lowest 3-4km AGL
will likely preclude organized severe storm potential.
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