Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026
Valid 041300Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible
today across parts of central California and the Pacific Northwest
into portions of the Great Basin.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs over the
eastern CONUS, one moving through the Northeast and one moving
through the eastern Gulf/FL Peninsula. These waves are forecast to
continue eastward/southeastward today as the modest upper ridging
currently over the central CONUS shifts eastward as well. Some
dampening of this ridging is possible as a shortwave trough moves
from the northern Rockies through the northern Plains and Upper
Midwest. Surface ridging will prevail in the vicinity of these
waves, with the associated stable conditions precluding
thunderstorms. The only exception is across south FL, where enough
low-level moisture will be in place along a weakening frontal
boundary to support a thunderstorm or two.
Upper troughing will gradually deepen over the western CONUS as a
series of shortwave troughs progress across the region. First
shortwave in this series is forecast to reach the central CA Coast
this afternoon before continuing eastward through NV and weakening.
Another shortwave is expected to reach the Pacific Northwest Coast
this evening. This overall evolution will result in mid-level
cooling and persistent forcing for ascent overspreading much of the
region today through tonight. Resulting thermodynamic profiles could
occasionally become marginally conducive for deeper convection
capable of producing lightning.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/04/2026
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