Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Fri Nov 07 2025
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and marginally severe wind
gusts are possible today into this evening, across parts of the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys. A few marginally severe storms could also
develop in the central Gulf Coast states from afternoon into the
overnight period.
...Tennessee and Ohio Valleys/Central Gulf Coast States...
A mid-level trough, and an associated cold front will move eastward
through the mid Mississippi Valley today. Ahead of the front, an
axis of low-level moisture will be in place, along which surface
dewpoints will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s F. Destabilization
along the moist axis is expected to be modest due to abundant cloud
cover. However, MLCAPE could locally peak near 1000 J/kg by late
afternoon from northern Mississippi into southern Kentucky.
Thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the front during
the mid afternoon, with the storms moving eastward toward the
central Appalachians in the late afternoon and early evening. Along
this southwest-to-northeast corridor of instability, forecasts
soundings late this afternoon have moderate to strong deep-layer
shear in the 50 to 60 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates around
7 C/km. This could be enough for rotating storms capable of isolated
large hail. The stronger cells could also produce marginally severe
wind gusts. The area with the greatest severe threat is expected to
be relatively small, mainly due to instability which is forecast to
remain weak.
Further south into parts of the central Gulf Coast, surface
dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F may be enough to allow moderate
instability to develop by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent is
forecast to remain weak, isolated storms could form along and to the
east of a moist axis. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level
lapse rates could be sufficient for marginal severe threat. Hail and
a few isolated severe gusts will be possible with the stronger
cells. Due to the instability, which is forecast to remain in place
as the trough moves into the Appalachians, a marginal severe threat
could continue into the overnight period.
..Broyles/Supinie.. 11/07/2025
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