Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Fri Nov 07 2025
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon
through the evening across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
A few marginally severe storms could also develop in the central
Gulf Coast states late this afternoon into the overnight period.
...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave
trough over eastern NE/KS moving into southwest IA/MO. This upper
feature will move into the OH Valley by mid evening and the central
Appalachians by 08/12 UTC. Surface analysis indicates a cold front
over the middle MS Valley. The front will sweep east-southeast
across the OH/TN Valleys before reaching the Mid-Atlantic states and
northern portions of the central Gulf Coast states by early morning
Saturday.
...TN Valley into the southern Appalachians...
South-southwesterly low-level flow will act to gradually advect
richer moisture poleward within the warm conveyor and feature
surface dewpoints rising into the 56-58 deg F range across KY and
near 60 deg F across Middle TN by late afternoon. Perhaps equally
consequential will be mid-level cold-air advection with 500-mb
temperatures forecast to significantly cool (e.g., -12 deg C at 12
UTC per the Nashville, TN 12 UTC raob to -16 to -17 deg C by 00
UTC). As a result, weak destabilization is forecast with MLCAPE
ranging from 200-500 J/kg over KY to 500-1000 J/kg across the TN
Valley. Model guidance continues to show scattered cellular storms
developing late this afternoon initially over the KY/TN border
vicinity, with storms developing farther south near the AL/TN border
during the evening. Forecast hodographs will support organized
storms with the stronger updrafts, including the possibility for a
few supercells. A tornado risk, in addition to the threat for
damaging gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail may accompany the
stronger storms. A mix of linear storm modes and supercells are
expected through the early to mid evening as this activity moves
east. Storms and the severe risk will probably lessen over the
southern Appalachians before diminishing overnight.
...Central Gulf Coast...
Greater low-level moisture is anticipated farther south across this
region. However, overall forcing for ascent, both synoptically and
along the front, will be weaker and mid-level temperature
considerably warmer. The primary forcing across this region will
likely be warm-air advection, which leads to greater uncertainty
regarding convective initiation, particularly given the cloud cover
expected. If an updraft is able to mature and persist, there will
likely be enough low-level helicity to support a limited tornado
risk.
..Smith/Leitman.. 11/07/2025
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