Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CST Thu Nov 06 2025
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.
...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. See
the previous discussion below for details.
..Moore.. 11/06/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0954 AM CST Thu Nov 06 2025/
...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude, progressive flow regime will characterize the upper
pattern today across the Lower 48 states. A mid-level trough
featuring a few vorticity maxima will consolidate and amplify as
this trough moves across the northern Great Plains into the Upper
Midwest by early Friday morning. In the low levels, a cyclone will
deepen during the period and move across the ND/MN vicinity to the
Upper Peninsula of MI. A strengthening warm conveyor will probably
result in isolated thunderstorm activity tonight across the mid MS
Valley into the southern Great Lakes before a cold front sweeps
east.
Elsewhere, intermittent showers and isolated thunderstorms will
accompany a potent 500-mb speed max forecast to move east from the
eastern Pacific into the Pacific Northwest. A low-latitude
disturbance is forecast to eject across the southern Gulf of America
toward south Florida late in the period. This feature should
encourage a weak surface trough to focus near the south Florida
Atlantic Coast. Scattered convection is expected to develop
near/east of this boundary during the overnight hours.
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