Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of east
and southeast Texas into western Louisiana today and tonight.
...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough and increasingly strong westerly flow over the
central US are forecast to quickly intensify today, moving into the
Ohio Valley by tonight. Accompanying the strengthening trough, a
surface low over OK will deepen and shift toward the mid MS valley.
Trailing the low, a strong cold front will sweep southeastward with
increasing moisture ahead of it over the far southern Plains. Ahead
of the front, isolated strong to severe storms are possible over
parts of East TX and western LA this afternoon into early Sunday
morning.
...Eastern Texas into western LA...
South of the surface low across parts of central and southeast TX,
low-level warm air advection is expected much of the day associated
with a weakening 850 mb low-level jet. Persistent southerly flow
will help transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward across the
TX coastal plain into portions of central TX and far western LA.
Filtered diurnal heating should allow for some warming of the
relatively cool boundary layer. This warming, along with the
increase in low-level moisture, should support at least weak
destabilization by peak heating as cold mid-level temperatures from
the approaching trough move overhead. While overall forcing and flow
aloft should be modest south of the primary upper trough, isolated
thunderstorms are possible within the warm advection regime through
the afternoon and into the evening/overnight hours.
Veering hodographs and a subtle increase in deep-layer shear should
favor some storm organization with convection across southeast TX
into far western LA. Wind fields will be weak, but slightly enlarged
low-level hodographs (ESRH 100-200 m2/s2) and a cellular storm mode
could favor transient supercell structures along with occasionally
organized multicells. A brief tornado and marginally severe hail are
possible with the stronger updrafts. While any sustained severe risk
is likely to be contingent upon sufficient warming for surface-base
buoyancy, at least a low-end risk is possible from late afternoon
through much of the overnight hours ahead of the cold front.
As the cold front moves south from the Red River into central TX
this afternoon and into the evening, additional storms are likely to
form along and behind it as the front encounters the northern
fringes of the moisture plume. Despite sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE
500-1000 J/kg), the undercutting nature of the surging front should
tend to limit storm intensity. Still, sufficient deep-layer shear
(35-45 kt) could support a few stronger clusters as a broken line
develops and surges south. Isolated hail, and perhaps some strong
gusts are possible as the front is expected to quickly move toward
the coast and reach the Gulf early Sunday morning.
..Lyons/Weinman.. 11/29/2025
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