Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Valid 291300Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of east
and southeast Texas into western Louisiana today and tonight.
...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving into
the central Plains, with another shortwave in its wake over central
WY. The lead shortwave is forecast to continue quickly eastward,
reaching MO by this afternoon before then pivoting more
northeastward from the Mid MS Valley into Lower MI. This progression
will be accompanied by a strengthening of the mid-level flow as it
spreads from the central Plains into the OH and TN Valleys.
A surface low, recently analyzed over central KS, will accompany the
lead shortwave as well, moving rapidly northeastward across MO and
IL before ending the period over Lower MI. A cold front attendant to
this low will sweep eastward across the Ozarks and southeastward
across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. A large area of
elevated thunderstorms is expected from the Arklatex into the Mid MS
Valley, supported by strong southwesterly low-level flow and
associated warm-air advection ahead of the front. More intense and
potentially severe storms are anticipated along and ahead of the
front across central/east TX and western LA.
...Central/East TX...Western LA...
Recent surface analysis placed mid 50s dewpoints as far north as the
TX Big Country, with 60s dewpoints farther south in the TX Hill
Country. Low-level moisture advection is forecast to continue
throughout the day, with mid 50s dewpoints reaching the Red River
and low 60s dewpoints likely reaching the Metroplex vicinity ahead
of the cold front. Primary thunderstorm activity is anticipated
along the front as it interacts with the modestly moist and buoyant
airmass ahead of it. Moderate mid-level flow is expected, but the
fast-moving front will still likely lead to a prevalence of undercut
updrafts. Even so, sufficient deep-layer shear (35-45 kt) could
support a few stronger clusters as a broken line develops and surges
south. Isolated hail, and perhaps some damaging gusts are possible
as the front moves quickly toward the coast and reaches the Gulf
early Sunday morning.
There is a low-probability chance that thunderstorms develop from
the TX Hill Country into the Brazos Valley during the afternoon,
supported by low-level confluence within a diurnally destabilized
airmass. If any of these updrafts are able to mature, there is
enough low-level curvature to support transient supercell structures
along with occasionally organized multicells. A brief tornado and
marginally severe hail are possible with any stronger,
longer-duration updrafts.
..Mosier/Dean.. 11/29/2025
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