Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 290100Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated tonight.
...Synopsis...
Evening water-vapor imagery shows a weak shortwave trough over the
Plains moving eastward ahead of a second, more intense, upper trough
over the central and northern Rockies. As the primary trough
intensifies to the west, the increases in west/southwesterly
midlevel flow will help deep a surface low moving from eastern
CO/western KS into OK tonight. The southerly winds will allow modest
northward moisture return tonight across parts of the southern
Plains and Ozarks.
As the surface low strengthens with the approach of the western
trough this evening and overnight, low-level warm advection should
also intensify. Strong isentropic ascent atop the cool and
relatively dry boundary-layer over the southern Plains should
support increasing coverage of showers and elevated thunderstorms
already ongoing from central and western North TX into OK and
eventually the lower MO Valley/Ozarks. With meager buoyancy aloft
(MUCAPE 500 J/kg or less) the potential for stronger updrafts
appears quite limited despite increasingly robust deep-layer shear
profiles. While a stronger storm or two with the potential for small
hail cannot be completely ruled out, severe potential remains very
low.
..Lyons.. 11/29/2025
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