Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Valid 282000Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are anticipated today/tonight.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more info.
..Thornton.. 11/28/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025/
...Southern Plains vicinity...
A midlevel shortwave impulse will eject across the southern Rockies
into the southern Plains today ahead of a stronger upper trough
digging southeast from the northern Rockies into much of the Great
Plains tonight. Resulting increases in west/southwesterly midlevel
flow will overspread weak northward moisture return across TX as a
surface low develops/modestly deepens over KS/OK.
Showers will increase today into tonight from central TX, north and
east across portions of the Plains into the Ozarks. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible this evening and tonight as midlevel
temperatures cool and lapse rates modestly steepen. However, meager
boundary layer moisture will limit instability, with forecast
soundings generally indicating 500 J/kg or less MUCAPE. Severe
potential appears low given expected modest updrafts
intensity/longevity.
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