Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through the afternoon
into the overnight hours, from east Texas into central/southern
Mississippi.
...20Z Update...
Only minor changes to general thunder and severe probabilities have
been made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook to reflect the latest
observations and guidance consensus. Storms have increased in
coverage and intensity along the cold front, and along a primary
low-level moisture confluence zone within the free warm sector.
Storms seem to be struggling in intensity at the moment, possibly
due to a sub-optimal vertical wind shear profile in place (please
see MCD 2223 for more details on short-term convective trends).
However, convection should persist to some degree along and ahead of
the cold front through the afternoon into the overnight hours as
upper support from an approaching mid-level trough overspreads the
Sabine/MS River Valleys. With adequate low-level moisture advection
continuing ahead of the cold front, supercells and line segments
capable of damaging gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will remain
possible through tonight, from eastern TX into central MS.
..Squitieri.. 11/24/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025/
...East TX this afternoon to MS overnight...
A midlevel shortwave trough over KS/OK/TX this morning will progress
a bit north-of-east to the lower OH and TN Valleys by Tuesday
morning. Only weak surface cyclogenesis is expected in advance of
the de-amplifying midlevel trough, but there will be sufficient mass
response to support a modestly strong low-level jet (roughly 40 kt)
from northeast TX this afternoon into the Ark-La-Miss by early
Tuesday. This low-level jet will correspond to the north edge of
the richer low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints of 66-70 F),
and MLCAPE generally 1000-2000 J/kg near and south of the warm
front.
Convective mode is likely to remain rather messy through tonight,
though cellular elements are expected given modest forcing for
ascent along the deeper baroclinic zone from northeast TX eastward
near the LA/AR border. Warm sector supercell development is also
possible by early-mid afternoon from southeast into east TX (see MD
2222 for additional details), along a confluence zone (now from
VCT-CLL) and aided by cloud breaks where surface temperatures warm
into the 75-80 F range. The combination of moderate buoyancy and
sufficiently long/curved hodographs will support the threat for a
few supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, occasional wind
damaging and isolated large hail. The threat will spread this
afternoon across east TX and then spread eastward overnight toward
MS.
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