Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EAST
TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through the overnight
hours, from far east Texas into central/southern Mississippi.
...Synopsis...
As of 00:30 UTC, a broken line of thunderstorms continues from far
northeast LA southward towards the Houston metro area. While most
cells have remained sub-severe thus far, MRMS VIL and GOES IR
cloud-top temperature trends show a slight uptick in intensity over
the past hour. Additionally, a slight uptick in 0-2 km winds is
noted in warm-sector VWP observations, which is bolstering SRH and
improving the overall convective environment immediately downstream
of ongoing storms. This environment, characterized by STP values
between 1-2, is expected to persist through the overnight hours as
an upper wave and attendant (albeit weak) surface low translate
eastward towards the MS Valley. Some northward advancement of the
surface warm front is anticipated as low-level winds increase to
30-40 knots, which should maintain the potential for strong/severe
storms, including the potential for a few tornadoes,
east/northeastward into portions of west-central MS by 09-12 UTC. It
remains unclear exactly how far northward the surface-based warm
sector will expand through early morning, but even modest MLCAPE
(around 500 J/kg) may support a tornado threat given 0-1 km SRH on
the order of 250 m2/s2. For additional short-term details see MCD
#2225.
..Moore.. 11/25/2025
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