Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025
Valid 271300Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...
...SUMMARY...
A localized risk for a tornado and damaging gusts will briefly focus
over a small portion of the Florida Panhandle this morning.
...FL Panhandle...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low
over western TN which is forecast to move east today and reach the
southern Appalachians tonight. A mid-level dryslot has moved into
the northeast Gulf of America early this morning and is co-located
with an 80-kt speed max at 300 mb.
In the low levels, a stationary maritime front is draped over the
southern portions of the FL Panhandle with a moisture-rich and
adequately unstable airmass along and south of the boundary.
Easterly low-level flow veering to westerly with height in the mid
levels has resulted in a wind profile supporting updraft rotation.
A couple of surface-based supercells have been observed approaching
the coast this morning with cycling mesocyclones. A few hours of
localized severe potential may develop inland over the southern
portion of the FL Panhandle through the late morning. A tornado
and/or a damaging gust or two are possible with the supercell
activity near the coast.
Elsewhere, general thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
Great Plains states. Elongated hodographs over the central High
Plains may aid in the development of a stronger storm or two late
this afternoon/early evening, but storm intensity will probably
remain limited. A few storms exhibiting transient rotation may
develop over the near-shore waters to the east of the FL-GA-SC
coast, but models primarily show this activity remaining offshore
over the continental shelf/Gulf Stream.
..Smith/Weinman.. 10/27/2025
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TNvlkh
