Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
today through tonight.
...Discussion...
Models indicate that a blocking mid/upper high will continue to
evolve northeast of the upper Great Lakes into the southern
Hudson/James Bay vicinity through this period. At the same time, it
appears that the westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific
will undergo amplification, leading to building ridging across
British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, and digging downstream
troughing across the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies into the central Great
Plains. As this occurs, an initially slow moving downstream low may
accelerate across the Mid South into the southern Appalachians
vicinity by early Tuesday.
While this evolving regime is forecast to maintain cold surface
ridging across the eastern Canadian provinces through the Mid
Atlantic, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region, it appears that
another notable surface ridge will build across the Intermountain
West and Rockies into the Great Plains, before substantive low-level
moistening occurs within modest lee surface troughing initially
across the high plains. As the leading edge of cyclonic mid-level
flow associated with the Southeastern low spreads across the south
Atlantic coast, modest surface cyclogenesis may commence offshore as
early as this afternoon. In its wake, cool/stable conditions will
be reinforced across much of the Southeast through northwestern Gulf
Basin.
...Florida...
Beneath broadly difluent, cyclonic mid/upper flow overspreading the
region, scattered thunderstorm development appears probable as a
moist boundary layer destabilizes with insolation by this afternoon.
Although some hail and gusty winds might accompany stronger
convection, potential for reaching severe limits still seems limited
due to the lack of colder air aloft, and generally modest to weak
lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields/shear.
..Kerr/Wendt.. 10/27/2025
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