Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025
Valid 271630Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
occasional damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening
across parts of the Florida Peninsula.
...Florida...
Strong to locally severe convection has moved southeast and offshore
from the Apalachicola vicinity, so the Marginal Risk has been
removed from this area. Nearly all guidance suggests this activity
will weaken as it approaches the west coast of the FL Peninsula this
afternoon and moves over cooler shelf waters. Other isolated strong
to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across interior
portions of the central FL Peninsula as continued strong diurnal
heating occurs over this area along/south of a stalled front. Even
though lapse rates aloft will remain modest (reference 12Z observed
sounding from TBW), weak low-level flow will veer to
west-southwesterly and strengthen with height through mid/upper
levels on the southern periphery of an upper trough over the
Southeast. The forecast combination of moderate instability and
around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear may support occasional
convective organization. Isolated damaging winds appear possible
with the stronger cores as low-level lapse rates steepen through the
afternoon. These thunderstorms should move eastward and mostly
offshore through early evening before eventually weakening with the
loss of daytime heating.
...Central High Plains...
An upper trough over the Northwest and northern Rockies will amplify
as it ejects eastward over the northern/central Plains through the
period. Surface lee troughing should deepen this afternoon/evening
as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads
the central High Plains. However, recent visible satellite imagery
and surface observations show limited low-level moisture and broken
to widespread low clouds over this region. This should hinder the
development of any more than meager buoyancy through the
afternoon/evening. Even though some high-resolution guidance shows a
stronger thunderstorm or two developing in eastern CO/western KS,
the overall thermodynamic environment appears too marginal to
include low severe probabilities at this time.
..Gleason/Leitman.. 10/27/2025
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TNw69P
