Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025
Valid 172000Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF
NORTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible this evening and tonight from the southern and central
Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.
...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for
additional details.
..Wendt.. 10/17/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025/
...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
An upper trough over the western states will maintain deep
southwesterly flow across the Plains states. A surface cold front
currently extending from eastern NE into the TX Panhandle will sag
southeastward into a somewhat moist and unstable air mass, providing
the focus for scattered thunderstorms. Convection now occurring in
southeast NE will expand eastward and southward this afternoon, with
storms building southwestward along the front into OK through the
evening. Thermodynamic parameters are relatively weak, with poor
lapse rates and marginal CAPE. However, the combination of frontal
forcing and favorable shear profiles may result in isolated strong
storms this evening capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds.
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