Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
AND OZARKS INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into tonight
across parts of the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks, mid to lower Mississippi and
lower Ohio Valleys. Damaging winds, a few tornadoes and hail may
occur.
...Synopsis...
A vigorous mid/upper-level trough will dig southeastward across the
central/northern Plains later today. In response to this system, a
shortwave trough initially over the southern High Plains will eject
quickly east-northeastward during the day toward the ArkLaTex. The
combination of these systems will eventually result in development
of a deep and progressive trough becoming established over the MS
Valley by early Sunday morning. As this occurs, a surface low will
develop along a cold front across the south-central Plains. This
surface low will deepen and move northeastward through the period,
eventually reaching Lower MI by 12Z Sunday morning.
...Eastern TX/OK into parts of the lower/mid MS Valley...
Convection will likely increase in coverage and intensity from
southern MO into eastern OK/TX from late morning onward, as the
ejecting shortwave trough approaches the region. Moderate buoyancy
and strengthening deep-layer shear will support organized convection
that will spread eastward through the afternoon. Initial supercell
development could pose a threat for a hail and locally damaging
wind, along with some tornado potential. Increasing ascent will tend
to favor eventual storm clustering and possible QLCS development
with time, resulting in a continued damaging-wind threat, along with
some embedded brief tornado potential.
Guidance generally depicts a local buoyancy minimum across eastern
AR into western TN by late afternoon, which could cause some
weakening as storms move into this area. However, a notable increase
in the low-level jet may support some reintensification of storms
during the evening near and east of the lower MS Valley. A continued
threat for damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes may
persist overnight near and north of the central Gulf Coast vicinity.
...Parts of the Ohio Valley/Midwest...
Early-day convection across parts of the southern Great Lakes
vicinity could produce locally gusty winds, through weak instability
may tend to limit organized severe potential with the morning
storms. Additional storms may develop during the afternoon within a
favorably sheared environment, with a strongly forced line becoming
possible later this evening/overnight as the surface low deepens and
moves northeastward. The magnitude of the severe threat may be
limited by scant instability, but strong ascent and strong
deep-layer flow/shear will support some potential for damaging gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado or two.
..Dean/Thornton.. 10/18/2025
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