Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025
Valid 171630Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...AND
WESTERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible this evening and tonight from the southern and central
Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.
...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
An upper trough over the western states will maintain deep
southwesterly flow across the Plains states. A surface cold front
currently extending from eastern NE into the TX Panhandle will sag
southeastward into a somewhat moist and unstable air mass, providing
the focus for scattered thunderstorms. Convection now occurring in
southeast NE will expand eastward and southward this afternoon, with
storms building southwestward along the front into OK through the
evening. Thermodynamic parameters are relatively weak, with poor
lapse rates and marginal CAPE. However, the combination of frontal
forcing and favorable shear profiles may result in isolated strong
storms this evening capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds.
..Hart/Kerr.. 10/17/2025
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