Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears negligible today.
...Western U.S...
Strong upper low off the Pacific Northwest Coast is forecast to
advance inland during the latter half of the period. As this occurs,
dominant upper ridge over the southern High Plains will be
suppressed south into northeast Mexico as broad midlevel height
falls spread across much of the western U.S. Latest model guidance
continues to favor moist trajectories across western Mexico into the
southern Great Basin/Four Corners. As a result, seasonally high PW
values will remain entrenched across this region and this will limit
lapse rates within a weak-modest instability environment. As the
upper trough advances east, midlevel flow will strengthen across the
lower CO River Valley into the Great Basin such that vertical shear
profiles may become supportive of a few weak supercells, per 23z
forecast sounding at LAS (30kt 0-6km shear). Poor-weak lapse rates
and weak low-level shear are not particularly conducive for
organized severe, thus will maintain less than 5% severe probs
during the day1 period.
Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are expected within a poor lapse
rate environment across much of the FL Peninsula, and across
portions of the mid MS Valley into the Great Lakes region in
association with a digging upper trough. Severe is not expected in
either of these areas due to weak instability.
..Darrow/Weinman.. 10/10/2025
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