Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Rich low-level moisture present over southern AZ and the Lower CO
River Valley this morning will spread northward today as an upper
trough/low moves slowly inland along the West Coast. Across the
Great Basin, lapse rates aloft are forecast to remain fairly modest,
and daytime heating will likely be hindered to some extent by
mid/high-level cloudiness. Still, at least weak instability should
develop by late afternoon, which combined with increasing mid-level
flow with the approach of the upper trough/low may support a strong
thunderstorm or two. However, the overall severe threat appears too
isolated/marginal to include any hail/wind probabilities across the
southern Great Basin and vicinity with this update.
Elsewhere, ongoing elevated thunderstorms aided by a westerly
low-level jet may persist through the morning over MO and IL before
eventually weakening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may also
occur today across parts of the FL Peninsula/Keys, Great Lakes, and
Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Across all these regions, the
forecast combination of instability and shear appears inadequate for
organized severe convection.
..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/10/2025
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