Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025
Valid 092000Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast today or tonight.
...20z Outlook...
Only minor changes were made to introduce thunder across southern
Wyoming in response to trends. Otherwise, no changes are needed to
the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more
information.
..Thornton.. 10/09/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025/
...Discussion...
Upper ridging will be prevalent over the Rockies/Plains, with
surface high pressure over the Midwest and much of the East. While
severe storms are not expected, thunderstorms will occur across the
coastal Southeast, and across the Upper Midwest and portions of the
middle/lower Missouri Valley tonight near/ahead of an advancing
front.
In the West, persistent southwesterly flow between the upper ridging
centered over west Texas and cyclone off the Pacific Northwest will
continue to advect seasonally high moisture content associated with
Tropical Storm Priscilla into the Southwest and Great Basin. Modest
boundary-layer heating will contribute to adequate destabilization
for lightning within deeper convective updrafts, but overall storm
intensity will likely be limited by poor lapse rates.
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