Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through early Wednesday
morning.
...Synopsis...
Southwesterly mid/upper flow will persist across the Pacific
Northwest as an upper trough remains just offshore through the
period. Large-scale ascent and cooling aloft may support isolated
thunderstorms offshore and near the WA Coast/Olympic Peninsula.
Further east, a lead upper shortwave trough will lift northeast
across the northern Plains. A surface trough/wind shift will develop
eastward across the northern/central Plains as this occurs.
Southerly low-level flow will maintain modest boundary layer
moisture ahead of the surface boundary. Capping will likely preclude
surface-based convection, but isolated elevated thunderstorms are
possible across eastern portions of the Plains toward the Upper
Midwest amid weak instability and modestly steep midlevel lapse
rates within the warm advection regime.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms may also occur across portions of
the FL Peninsula. However, thunderstorm coverage/intensity may be
limited by midlevel subsidence despite a seasonally moist/unstable
airmass.
..Leitman.. 10/01/2025
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