Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 AM CDT Wed Oct 01 2025
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Isolated thunderstorms may persist this afternoon into early evening
across parts of the central/northern Plains and Upper Midwest amid
weak large-scale ascent associated with modest low-level warm
advection and multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations
spreading northeastward across these regions. Occasional convective
development reaching sufficient levels for charge separation and
lightning generation may also occur this afternoon across parts of
south FL and the Keys, although mid-level lapse rates are expected
to remain very poor. Finally, isolated lighting flashes appear
possible with low-topped thunderstorms in close proximity to an
upper low off the coast of WA and British Columbia, although this
activity should primarily affect only coastal WA and adjacent
offshore waters. For all areas of thunderstorm potential today, weak
instability and/or shear are expected to preclude organized severe
thunderstorms.
..Gleason/Thornton.. 10/01/2025
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