Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Valid 302000Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.
...20Z Update...
Only minor changes were made to the forecast with this update,
including a slight expansion of the General Thunderstorm area in the
Appalachians. See the previous discussion below for details.
..Weinman.. 09/30/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper ridging will be maintained today across the Midwest and Great
Lakes, while upstream troughing advances inland over the western
states. Multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs will encourage
thunderstorm development through the period from parts of the Great
Basin into the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains.
Thunderstorms may also occur across parts of coastal WA with
low-topped convection in close proximity to an upper low off the
coast of British Columbia. Other isolated thunderstorms appear
possible this afternoon over portions of the southern Appalachians
and FL Atlantic Coast. For all these areas, weak instability and/or
modest shear should preclude organized severe thunderstorms.
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