Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Valid 291630Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential should remain low through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Modest flow aloft and limited large-scale ascent will exist today
over most of the CONUS, with upper ridging remaining over the
north-central states and Midwest. An upper trough with enhanced
mid-level flow will move gradually inland across western states
through the period, while multiple weak shortwave troughs advance
northeastward over the southern/central Rockies and adjacent High
Plains. Scattered to locally numerous afternoon/evening
thunderstorms are forecast along/ahead of a surface cold front as it
moves into parts of NV/ID and vicinity, and also over portions of
the southern/central Rockies and High Plains. In both regions,
limited low-level moisture and weak instability (MLCAPE of 500 J/kg
or less) should preclude organized severe thunderstorms.
Tropical Storm Imelda should strengthen off the FL Coast today, but
will remain well offshore per latest NHC forecast track. While a few
thunderstorms will be possible in distant outer rain bands from much
of the FL Peninsula northward to the GA/SC/NC Coast, the risk of
strong to severe convection is expected to remain low due to modest
low-level shear.
..Gleason/Thornton.. 09/29/2025
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