Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential should remain low through tonight.
...20Z Update...
Minor updates to the general thunderstorm area in the northern
Plains based on current activity. Otherwise, the previous forecast
reasoning remains valid.
..Wendt.. 09/29/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Modest flow aloft and limited large-scale ascent will exist today
over most of the CONUS, with upper ridging remaining over the
north-central states and Midwest. An upper trough with enhanced
mid-level flow will move gradually inland across western states
through the period, while multiple weak shortwave troughs advance
northeastward over the southern/central Rockies and adjacent High
Plains. Scattered to locally numerous afternoon/evening
thunderstorms are forecast along/ahead of a surface cold front as it
moves into parts of NV/ID and vicinity, and also over portions of
the southern/central Rockies and High Plains. In both regions,
limited low-level moisture and weak instability (MLCAPE of 500 J/kg
or less) should preclude organized severe thunderstorms.
Tropical Storm Imelda should strengthen off the FL Coast today, but
will remain well offshore per latest NHC forecast track. While a few
thunderstorms will be possible in distant outer rain bands from much
of the FL Peninsula northward to the GA/SC/NC Coast, the risk of
strong to severe convection is expected to remain low due to modest
low-level shear.
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