Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Valid 261630Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AZ INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NM...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms with hail and strong to marginally severe gusts
are possible today across parts of southern and central Arizona into
far southwestern New Mexico.
...Southwest...
A well-defined upper low continues to progress slowly eastward
across southern CA. Given its displacement well south of the primary
westerlies along the US/Canada border, only limited eastward
progression of this low is anticipated, with some potential it
stalls in over the Lower CO River Valley vicinity. Ample moisture
remains in place ahead of this upper low, and the resulting
combination of persistent large-scale ascent associated with the low
and this moisture will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms
across much of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. Buoyancy will
be limited throughout much of this region, tempering the overall
updraft strength and storm severity.
The only exception is from central into southeast AZ and far
southwest NM where greater low-level moisture exists south of a warm
front that extends northwestward across the region to a surface low
over the Lower CO Valley. Additional thunderstorm development is
anticipated in this vicinity of this front this afternoon, where the
greater low-level moisture (i.e. low 60s dewpoints) will contribute
to afternoon MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Moderate low to
mid-level southwesterlies will help increase deep-layer shear
values, particularly along the warm front where surface
southeasterlies are possible. These environmental conditions support
the potential for rotating storms capable of producing large hail.
Steep low-level lapse rates throughout the warm sector suggest the
potential for damaging gusts exists as well. A low-probability
tornado threat may materialize along the warm front, with the
magnitude of the threat dependent on the strength of the surface
southeasterlies.
...Elsewhere...
Broad upper troughing extending from the Northeast through the Lower
MS Valley will contribute to scattered thunderstorms across much of
the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Limited buoyancy should temper the
overall storm intensity, although a strong storm or two is possible
within the moist environment over the Carolinas. A few thunderstorms
are also possible across northern MN as a cold front moves through
the region overnight.
..Mosier/Thornton.. 09/26/2025
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