Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Valid 261300Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms with hail and marginally severe gusts are
possible today across parts of southern and central Arizona into far
southwestern New Mexico.
...AZ...
Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low over southern CA,
tracking southeastward toward southern AZ. Increasing low-level
winds and large-scale lift associated with this system will aid
widespread thunderstorms today from southeast into east-central AZ.
Along the western periphery of this convection, a rather moist and
unstable air mass will be present. Afternoon MLCAPE values over
2500 J/kg and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will promote
some risk of hail in the stronger cells. Steep low-level lapse
rates will also develop immediately west of the primary thunderstorm
area, which could result in gusty/damaging winds. Most model
guidance suggests that widespread storms will persist through much
of the day, with steering flow from the southwest limiting the
amount of westward development into the lower deserts. Therefore
have maintained the ongoing MRGL risk, and will continue to
re-evaluate for a possible upgrade through the day.
..Hart/Grams.. 09/26/2025
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