Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Valid 270100Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
Thundertorms capable of hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be
possible for another hour or two this evening across parts of
central and southeast Arizona.
...Central and Southeast Arizona...
On water vapor imagery, a mid-level low is located over far
southeast California. A dry slot is evident over southwest Arizona,
with a plume of mid-level moisture extending over the remainder of
the state. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing within this plume
from near the mid-level low southeastward into central and
southeastern Arizona. This activity is located along the
northeastward edge of a southeast-to-northwest corridor of
instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg
range. In addition, the Tuscon 00Z sounding has 0-6 km shear near 35
knots, with a 0-3 km lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This should be
enough for isolated severe gusts with the strongest of cells over
the next hour or two. Hail will also be possible. Instability will
continue to weaken, with the overall severe threat diminishing by
mid evening.
..Broyles.. 09/27/2025
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