Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms with hail and marginally severe gusts are
possible today across parts of southern and central Arizona into far
southwestern New Mexico.
...Southern and Central Arizona/Far Southwest New Mexico...
A mid-level low will move southeastward across southern California
today. Ahead of the low, a moist airmass will be in place across
much of Arizona and southwest New Mexico. As surface temperatures
warm across this airmass, an axis of moderate instability will
develop by afternoon across southeast and central Arizona. Scattered
thunderstorms will likely form during the mid to late afternoon from
this axis of instability into the higher terrain of the Mogollon
Rim. By late afternoon, forecast soundings along this
south-southeast to north-northwest corridor have 0-3 km lapse rates
in the 7.5 to 8.5 range with 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range
and 500 mb temperatures near -10C. This should support a threat for
hail and marginally severe wind gusts with semi-organized cells near
the instability axis. The threat is expected to persist from late
afternoon into the early to mid evening.
..Broyles.. 09/26/2025
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