Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of
the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more
concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of
the Dakotas and for large hail along the Nebraska-Kansas border.
...Dakotas...
The nose of a diurnally strengthening low-level jet will advance
north across the Dakotas today. Deeper boundary-layer mixing will
occur within the convective-free portion of the low-level jet. An
arc of seasonably rich boundary-layer moisture, characterized by mid
60s to low 70s surface dew points, will lie to its north from
eastern ND to the Lower OH Valley along the diurnally sharpening
surface warm front. A mesoscale corridor of enhanced low-level SRH
coincident with this rich moisture should pivot northward from
north-central SD through parts of central/eastern ND this afternoon.
CAM guidance varies in the degree of convective development, which
will be modulated by adequate insolation downstream of morning
convection from central NE to western SD. A few rotating cells seems
plausible, with the primary hazard being tornado. Weak mid-level
lapse rates should temper the overall threat though and storm
intensity will wane as the boundary layer cools after sunset.
...Central Great Plains...
A confined plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will accompany the
southeast flank of the consolidating negative-tilt trough ejecting
north-northeast from the central High Plains. In the wake of
persistent morning convection, boundary-layer heating should become
pronounced from the TX Panhandle across western KS. This should
support a corridor of ample buoyancy where low to mid-level lapse
rates are steep. This corridor should be offset west of the confined
belt of stronger mid-level flow. Nevertheless, with scattered to
widespread storms, some of these should contain transient supercell
to mainly multicell structures. Scattered large hail and isolated
severe gusts should be the primary threats in this regime during the
late afternoon to early evening.
...Southern High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon,
as rapid destabilization occurs in the wake of morning convection
progressing east. Modest mid-level westerlies, south of the
negative-tilt shortwave trough advancing north of the central High
Plains, should provide adequate deep-layer shear for transient
supercell and multicell structures. But weak mid-level lapse rates,
amid relatively warm mid-level temperatures, should temper updraft
vigor. This should support a likely isolated severe threat.
...Mid-South/Mid-MS Valley...
Ample buoyancy along and southwest of the synoptic warm front should
aid in a few strong gusts and small hail with scattered late
afternoon storms. Rather weak deep-layer shear within the mid-level
ridge indicates a predominant pulse mode, supporting a negligible
threat for organized severe.
..Grams/Squitieri.. 09/14/2025
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